Relation of GDP and Interest Rates

Q

What Is the Relationship Between GDP and Interest Rates?

✍: FYIcenter.com

A

The Relationship Between GDP and Interest Rates can be summarized as:

  • Interest rates and inflation tend to move in the same direction, but with some delay.
  • Central banks raise interest rates to cool the economy, when GDP is growing too fast.
  • Central banks lower interest rates to stimulate the economy , when GDP is shrinking, or not growing.

The history of US GDP growth rates and US Fed discount rates is provided below:

Compare:
   US GDP Growth Rate
   US: RGDPY
   2025-12-11: 2.32717325 Percent
with:
   US Fed Discount Rate
   US: DISC
   2025-12-11: 3.75000000 Percent

          US GDP Growth Rate   US Fed Discount Rat
               RGDPY  Growth%        DISC  Growth%
           ---------- -------   ---------- -------
2025-12-11       2.33  100.00         3.75  100.00
2025-10-30       2.33  100.00         4.00  106.67
2025-09-18       2.33  100.00         4.25  113.33
2025-07-01       2.33  100.00         4.50  120.00
2025-04-01       2.36  101.22         4.50  120.00
2025-01-01       2.15   92.20         4.50  120.00
2024-12-19       2.53  108.87         4.50  120.00
2024-11-08       2.53  108.87         4.75  126.67
2024-10-01       2.53  108.87         5.00  133.33
2024-09-19       2.72  116.83         5.00  133.33
2024-07-01       2.72  116.83         5.50  146.67
2024-04-01       3.04  130.50         5.50  146.67
2024-01-01       2.90  124.69         5.50  146.67
2023-10-01       3.20  137.34         5.50  146.67
2023-07-27       3.24  139.07         5.50  146.67
2023-07-01       3.24  139.07         5.25  140.00
2023-05-04       2.83  121.58         5.25  140.00
2023-04-01       2.83  121.58         5.00  133.33
2023-03-23       2.28   98.01         5.00  133.33
2023-02-02       2.28   98.01         4.75  126.67
2023-01-01       2.28   98.01         4.50  120.00
2022-12-15       1.32   56.56         4.50  120.00
2022-11-03       1.32   56.56         4.00  106.67
2022-10-01       1.32   56.56         3.25   86.67
2022-09-22       2.30   98.68         3.25   86.67
2022-07-28       2.30   98.68         2.50   66.67
2022-07-01       2.30   98.68         1.75   46.67
2022-06-16       2.48  106.52         1.75   46.67
2022-05-05       2.48  106.52         1.00   26.67
2021-12-11       5.72  245.91         0.25    6.67
2020-12-11      -1.02  -43.77         0.25    6.67
2019-12-11       3.35  144.03         2.25   60.00
2018-12-11       2.13   91.32         2.75   73.33
2017-12-11       2.99  128.66         1.75   46.67
2016-12-11       2.18   93.74         1.00   26.67
2015-12-11       2.12   91.09         0.75   20.00
2014-12-11       2.69  115.41         0.75   20.00
2013-12-11       3.01  129.30         0.75   20.00
2012-12-11       1.55   66.68         0.75   20.00
2011-12-11       1.54   66.31         0.75   20.00
2010-12-11       2.78  119.28         0.75   20.00
2009-12-11       0.11    4.54         0.50   13.33
2008-12-11      -2.54 -109.19         1.25   33.33
2007-12-11       2.13   91.67         4.75  126.67
2006-12-11       2.63  113.21         6.25  166.67
2005-12-11       2.97  127.74         5.00  133.33
2004-12-11       3.35  144.00         3.00   80.00
2003-12-11       4.30  184.79         2.00   53.33
2002-12-11       1.99   85.62                     
2001-12-11       0.17    7.19                     
2000-12-11       2.91  124.86                     
1999-12-11       4.82  207.27                     
1998-12-11       4.88  209.83                     
1997-12-11       4.48  192.66                     
1996-12-11       4.42  189.99                     
1995-12-11       2.20   94.53                     
1994-12-11       4.12  176.87                     
1993-12-11       2.61  112.05                     
1992-12-11       4.38  188.32                     
1991-12-11       1.17   50.12                     
1990-12-11       0.60   25.91                     
1989-12-11       2.74  117.88                     
1988-12-11       3.80  163.26                     
1987-12-11       4.47  192.27                     
1986-12-11       2.91  124.93                     
1985-12-11       4.18  179.72                     
1984-12-11       5.58  239.59                     
1983-12-11       7.90  339.45                     
1982-12-11      -1.44  -62.01                     
1981-12-11       1.30   55.85                     
1980-12-11      -0.04   -1.68                     
1979-12-11       1.28   55.18                     
1978-12-11       6.66  286.17                     
1977-12-11       5.01  215.42                     
1976-12-11       4.31  185.27                     
1975-12-11       2.55  109.78                     
1947-01-01       0.00    0.00                     

 

Introduction to US Interest Rates

Relation of Inflation and Interest Rates

Interest Rates and Stock Market

⇑⇑ Interest Rates

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