Relation of GDP and Interest Rates

Q

What Is the Relationship Between GDP and Interest Rates?

✍: FYIcenter.com

A

The Relationship Between GDP and Interest Rates can be summarized as:

  • Interest rates and inflation tend to move in the same direction, but with some delay.
  • Central banks raise interest rates to cool the economy, when GDP is growing too fast.
  • Central banks lower interest rates to stimulate the economy , when GDP is shrinking, or not growing.

The history of US GDP growth rates and US Fed discount rates is provided below:

Compare:
   US GDP Growth Rate
   US: RGDPY
   2025-09-18: 2.35563303 Percent
with:
   US Fed Discount Rate
   US: DISC
   2025-09-18: 4.25000000 Percent

          US GDP Growth Rate   US Fed Discount Rat
               RGDPY  Growth%        DISC  Growth%
           ---------- -------   ---------- -------
2025-09-18       2.36  100.00         4.25  100.00
2025-04-01       2.36  100.00         4.50  105.88
2025-01-01       2.15   91.09         4.50  105.88
2024-12-19       2.53  107.56         4.50  105.88
2024-11-08       2.53  107.56         4.75  111.76
2024-10-01       2.53  107.56         5.00  117.65
2024-09-19       2.72  115.42         5.00  117.65
2024-07-01       2.72  115.42         5.50  129.41
2024-04-01       3.04  128.92         5.50  129.41
2024-01-01       2.90  123.19         5.50  129.41
2023-10-01       3.20  135.68         5.50  129.41
2023-07-27       3.24  137.39         5.50  129.41
2023-07-01       3.24  137.39         5.25  123.53
2023-05-04       2.83  120.11         5.25  123.53
2023-04-01       2.83  120.11         5.00  117.65
2023-03-23       2.28   96.82         5.00  117.65
2023-02-02       2.28   96.82         4.75  111.76
2023-01-01       2.28   96.82         4.50  105.88
2022-12-15       1.32   55.88         4.50  105.88
2022-11-03       1.32   55.88         4.00   94.12
2022-10-01       1.32   55.88         3.25   76.47
2022-09-22       2.30   97.48         3.25   76.47
2022-07-28       2.30   97.48         2.50   58.82
2022-07-01       2.30   97.48         1.75   41.18
2022-06-16       2.48  105.23         1.75   41.18
2022-05-05       2.48  105.23         1.00   23.53
2022-04-01       2.48  105.23         0.50   11.76
2022-03-17       4.01  170.44         0.50   11.76
2021-09-18       4.98  211.26         0.25    5.88
2020-09-18      -1.41  -59.99         0.25    5.88
2019-09-18       2.80  118.75         2.75   64.71
2018-09-18       3.13  132.87         2.50   58.82
2017-09-18       2.41  102.34         1.75   41.18
2016-09-18       1.81   76.66         1.00   23.53
2015-09-18       2.45  103.89         0.75   17.65
2014-09-18       3.06  129.89         0.75   17.65
2013-09-18       2.24   94.96         0.75   17.65
2012-09-18       2.57  109.26         0.75   17.65
2011-09-18       0.94   40.02         0.75   17.65
2010-09-18       3.34  141.97         0.75   17.65
2009-09-18      -3.13 -132.99         0.50   11.76
2008-09-18       0.27   11.29         2.25   52.94
2007-09-18       2.37  100.53         5.25  123.53
2006-09-18       2.33   98.71         6.25  147.06
2005-09-18       3.45  146.40         4.50  105.88
2004-09-18       3.49  148.36         2.50   58.82
2003-09-18       3.23  137.17         2.00   47.06
2002-09-18       2.15   91.12                     
2001-09-18       0.49   20.77                     
2000-09-18       3.97  168.67                     
1999-09-18       4.79  203.39                     
1998-09-18       4.10  174.20                     
1997-09-18       4.67  198.45                     
1996-09-18       4.05  171.93                     
1995-09-18       2.67  113.49                     
1994-09-18       4.34  184.11                     
1993-09-18       2.29   97.07                     
1992-09-18       3.67  155.60                     
1991-09-18      -0.10   -4.36                     
1990-09-18       1.73   73.33                     
1989-09-18       3.91  165.88                     
1988-09-18       4.19  178.01                     
1987-09-18       3.26  138.48                     
1986-09-18       3.12  132.41                     
1985-09-18       4.26  180.95                     
1984-09-18       6.90  292.95                     
1983-09-18       5.74  243.54                     
1982-09-18      -2.56 -108.51                     
1981-09-18       4.33  183.63                     
1980-09-18      -1.62  -68.93                     
1979-09-18       2.39  101.44                     
1978-09-18       5.25  222.74                     
1977-09-18       5.77  244.94                     
1976-09-18       4.96  210.49                     
1975-09-18       0.80   33.90                     
1947-01-01       0.00    0.00                     

 

Introduction to US Interest Rates

Relation of Inflation and Interest Rates

Interest Rates and Stock Market

⇑⇑ Interest Rates

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